ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) predicts the outcome of each game before each week of the college football season. Week 11 is now in the rearview mirror, so we look ahead to the Week 12 slate.

Included in the model’s Week 12 predictions is the Arkansas-Texas matchup. The model is leaning heavily towards Texas, giving the Longhorns an 85.9% chance to win the game. This means the Razorbacks are getting just a 14.1% chance to pull off the home upset.

Texas improved to 8-1 in Week 11 by dominating Florida, winning by a score of 49-17. In Sunday’s updated AP Poll, the Longhorns moved up 2 spots to No. 3 in the country. The lone blemish on the team’s resume is a loss to Georgia back in October.

The Razorbacks were on a bye, so the team will enter Week 12 with a 5-4 record. The Razorbacks have conference wins over Auburn, Tennessee, and Mississippi State, with losses to Texas A&M, Ole Miss, and LSU.

The Longhorns boast the No. 2 total defense in the nation. The unit allows just 251 yards per game and 12.1 points. The Bobby Petrino Arkansas offense is impressive as well, however. The unit averages 483.6 yards and 33 points per game.

These teams are once again in the same conference after previously playing together in the now-defunct Southwest Conference. In total, these teams have played each other 79 times with the Longhorns picking up 56 wins and the Razorbacks getting 23.

The old rivals last met in 2021 when the Razorbacks picked up a big 40-21 win. The teams will kick off from Razorback Stadium on Saturday at noon ET.