
O'Gara: Takeaways from the second Playoff poll of 2024
We had to wait a little bit longer for the second Playoff poll, but it’s here.
Following the first college basketball game of the State Farm Classic, which ended surprisingly early, the second Playoff rankings of 2024 were revealed.
Here’s what that looked like:
Here are takeaways from Tuesday night’s reveal:
The selection committee righted the wrong of last week’s ranking for BYU and Indiana
Last week, the obvious takeaway was that undefeated Indiana and BYU were ranked too low at No. 8 and No. 9, respectively. A pair of unbeaten teams were slighted for different reasons. Indiana lacks the quality wins against the current CFP Top 25, but the margin of victory is among the best in the sport, while BYU was the inverse of that.
Well, the selection committee righted that wrong. Now, Indiana is at No. 5 and BYU is at No. 6.
Sure, Georgia was an obvious candidate to fall behind those 2, and some might’ve assumed that Miami would take a tumble after its first loss. But in addition to hurdling past those 2 squads, Indiana and BYU quietly moved past 1-loss Tennessee, who had a ho-hum win against Mississippi State. That’s significant for a pair of teams who would like the safety net of a potential at-large berth.
It feels like the selection committee has IU and BYU paired together despite their different Playoff résumés. Perhaps that’ll only last another 2 weeks after IU takes on Ohio State in Columbus a week from Saturday. For now, though, it was a positive development for 2 teams who had to feel slighted by that first ranking.
Penn State and Texas look like they can stomach 1 more loss, despite thin résumés
I’ll stop making the same point every week, but it’s worth repeating 1 more time. Neither Penn State nor Texas have a win against the current CFP Top 25, yet they continue to get the benefit of having that “elite loss.”
The interesting thing is that Texas’ loss actually took a bit of a hit with Georgia suffering that second loss, though obviously the Longhorns stayed on schedule by blowing out a depleted Florida squad. Penn State also got a blowout win against a middle-of-the-pack Washington squad, which allowed it to rise as Georgia and Miami fell.
It’s becoming clear that while many others are wondering if they’ll be given the benefit of the doubt as a 2-loss team, Penn State and Texas don’t appear to be in that camp. Is that fair? It depends on what a potential second loss would look like. Texas losing in College Station to close the regular season could be another “quality loss,” and Penn State could get some grace if it loses a thriller at Minnesota to a potential 8-win Gopher squad.
The selection committee pretty clearly has its mind made up about Texas and Penn State passing the eye test. Arguing about that might be a lost cause at this point.
Georgia and Tennessee as an elimination game? It’s starting to feel like it.
We could still have tons of chaos down the stretch, but what’s becoming more clear is that Tennessee and Georgia will be fighting for their Playoff lives on Saturday in Athens.
By being ranked No. 7, Tennessee just fell behind BYU and Indiana. With a loss to Georgia, the Vols would be blocked by the Dawgs, who are currently the first team out of the Playoff. Sure, Tennessee would deserve to have the head-to-head against Alabama, but would the Vols fend off a 2-loss Ole Miss team? What about a 2-loss Texas, who is currently 4 spots ahead of Tennessee even though they both have 1 loss? That’s the issue for the Vols, who have 1 CFP Top 25 win and a loss against middle-of-the-road Arkansas.
No. 12 Georgia, on the other hand, is now squarely behind 2-loss Ole Miss AND 2-loss Alabama for losing those head-to-heads. Both of those teams could miss out on the SEC Championship and earn at-large berths. That makes the path for a 3-loss Georgia team feel chaos-dependent, even though the Dawgs have the toughest strength of schedule.
What does that mean? Saturday in Athens will be as big as it gets.
It would be stunning if the Big Ten failed to put 4 teams in
At this point, that might be the safest bet among the conference supremacy discussions. With 4 of the top 5 teams in the field, the Big Ten is setting itself up to have an ideal situation. That is, an undefeated team facing a 1-loss team in the conference title game with a pair of 1-loss teams on the outside looking in.
That’s how this would play out if there weren’t any upsets. Of course, even if Indiana beat Ohio State in Columbus, a 10-2 Ohio State team that was ranked as the top-1 loss team in the first 2 Playoff polls would still be set up well because of the win at Penn State. The selection committee might not be a fan of the Big Ten’s depth by continuing to have those 4 teams in the field, but having them in the top 5 carries more weight than whether Illinois or Minnesota can crack the Top 25.
Go figure that the Big Ten has the clearest path to get 4 teams in the field and not the SEC, who could have a cluster of 10-2 squads that baffles the selection committee in a few weeks.
Indiana’s schedule is rediculous.
If Connor is going to say Indiana’s “margin of victory is among the best in the sport” then he also needs to say their strength of schedule is ranked #100. Preferably in the same sentence.
If Tennessee, Alabama, and UGA all make it in at 10-2… H2H is thrown out of the window if only 2/3 aforementioned teams can get in. SOS and other factors (quality of loss, points margin, etc) will be considered instead.
It’s obvious this committee cares more about who you lost to than who you beat. Texas, Indiana, and Penn state resume is a joke. We have to hope Penn state loses to Minnesota and Indiana gets drilled this weekend by OSU. It’ll make things better for the SEC.
Indiana is getting btchslapped in two weeks.
That will be 1 loss for Indiana. Apparently the Committee thinks enough of them to keep them in.
I doubt it. I think their weak schedule combined with a btchslapping will give the committee room to say “Yeah SOS actually matters”. Wouldn’t shock me if they go either way.
The SEC heavyweights always need a patsy to get to where they want to be. Does anyone remember who was “selected” to let Alabama cakewalk into the 2021 CFP Final? A perfect patsy for Alabama; give Saban a golf clap for running the score up on Cincinnati. Passing the ball wasn’t even necessary in that laugher!
For Sankey, the script doesn’t get any better than it is in 2024; Indiana is tyrant Sankey’s dream come true.
How pleasant it would be if Indiana shut everyone up by turning Sankey’s dream into a nightmare by knocking an SEC team out of the bracket. How wonderful that would be.
I think we should go back to a BCS format to pick the playoff teams. It factored in SOS more than the CFB playoff committee does. If you look back at BCS rankings after they tweaked the formula after the 2004 season the top 12 teams were pretty spot on
The committee has sent a clear message that SOS will not be a significant factor.
One thing they did make clear dropping Georgia by 9 spots is they value game results. If Ohio State beats Indiana by 2 or 3 touchdowns they will drop out of the Top 12. Another opportunity for Georgia would be if ND loses to Army or USC. You might laugh at that but Riley just changed QBs to a more mobile QB which tends to fit his offense more then Miller Moss did so i wouldn’t be shocked if they win out
They certainly didn’t value the UGA vs TX game result. Nine slots back?
So, Texas, with a win vs 4-loss Vandy and 5-loss Michigan gets a number 2 seed? Why?
And this is what the other conferences that Texas was in were saying about them when we let them in the SEC. The bias for Texas is unreal. They literally have the weakest quality win of any SEC team. Their best win is against a 4 loss Vandy team. Tennessee should be ranked where Texas is at this week. I know Kirby will use the just out of playoff scenarios but Heupel has just as strong a case on that as well…
Remember, tu built their own television network because their pride was so ludicrously grand. Unfortunately, there are way too many fans of tu outside of Texas. No team manages to pull more eyeballs from coast to coast. So the answer to why tu gets such special treatment is the same as everything else in College Football (and most things to be fair) — money.
I like the “tu” reference. It makes it clear who owns UT in the SEC.
Back on point, UT will not make it in with two losses.
We tried to warn them, but they didn’t listen.
If all playoff games were neutral field, my money would be on a SEC team winning the natty. There are 6-8 teams from the SEC that could win in Columbus, Eugene, Austin, Dallas, Miami, wherever. Heck, even Vanderbilt is no easy out. Big 10 has 2 teams that are really good and 2 that are good. BIG 12 is crsp along with ACC. ND Will get in if they win out. There will be at least 2 SEC teams left out at 10-2 or 9-3, while beating the heck out of each other. With that said, Go Vols. Even if TN loses Saturday, as long as they keep it close, there in good shape.
“There are 6-8 SEC teams that can win in Columbus or Eugene”.
Dude what are you smoking?
Bama: maybe
Georgia: maybe (not the way they’re playing now)
Texas: maybe
Ole Miss: maybe (although after losing to Kentucky I doubt it)
Tennessee: no way
LSU: couldn’t even beat a middle of the pack USC team in their backyard .
Vanderbilt is a nice story but they’re getting blown out by Oregon or Ohio state
By my count that’s 4 slight possibilities. Maybe take a math class
I’m just glad Georgia gets a home game Saturday.
The big- 10 continues to get a lot of love, and yet consistently fails to produce in the playoffs. I know Michigan won it last year, but that was an exception. It will be interesting to see if they can turn it around this year.
I think on-campus games will make a difference
List of Frauds:
Penn State
Indiana
BYU
Miami
Boise
The tiny school down the street from me (SMU)
Hope to see some L’s from these schools in the next few weeks. If not we are going to see blow out playoff games.
For nearly two decades the “selection” method made it possible to avoid playing any team that may do what Utah did to Alabama way back when…
listen to the words of Saban after that game to understand how they were able to prevent that from happening ever again. That was the reason the “selection” method was born, so upsets like that could never ever happen again.
Upsets may not happen, but then again, they may!