
O'Gara: Early SEC thoughts on each Week 12 game
I’ve got good news and bad news.
Let’s start with the bad news. It’s always better to do that when presented with an option.
The bad news is that we’ve somehow reached Week 12. We have much less football left than we’ve already experienced, which is how time works. That’s terrifying.
But the good news is that we’ve got a 14-week regular season and the expanded Playoff. In addition to 3 more weeks of the regular season and 1 week of conference title games, we’re still more than 2 months away from saying “the season is officially over.”
That’s worth celebrating. So is the fact that we’ve got a Week 12 SEC slate that at least has a couple of games with Playoff implications.
Let’s dig into that:
No. 3 Texas vs. Arkansas — What a difference 3 years makes
Three years ago, a Year 1 Steve Sarkisian squad was run out of the building by Sam Pittman’s team. It was the coming-of-age moment for the Hogs that truly showed that they were past the Chad Morris era. Three years later, it’s fair to wonder if there will be a bit of a role reversal in Fayetteville. While the Hogs are no doormat, they did most recently lay down and allow a depleted Ole Miss offense to put up 63 points. That’s concerning to think about in a matchup against another elite schemer in Sarkisian.
Arkansas can shake up the SEC/Playoff picture if it can force some early Quinn Ewers turnovers and put the Longhorns on their heels in a hostile atmosphere. But that’s only if it’s a complete 180 from the Ole Miss showing, which is by no means a given.
Louisiana-Monroe vs. Auburn — Don’t get yourself fired, Hugh Freeze
What do I mean by that, you ask? Coming off a bye week, playing multiple quarterbacks (Payton Thorne is dealing with a shoulder injury) and losing at home to a Louisiana-Monroe team that was picked to finish last in the Sun Belt East division and hasn’t won a game in a month … that would knock Auburn out of bowl eligibility and it would perhaps knock Hugh Freeze out of a job. Any arguments there? Or can we all agree that this would be a lost cause and paying a $20.3 million buyout to Freeze would have enough momentum? Do we all agree? Good.
And for what it’s worth, that’s the only on-field result that would warrant that type of action this season. Given Auburn’s 2-4 home record, we shouldn’t rule that out.
Murray State vs. Kentucky — I have no idea what UK will do at QB
Brock Vandagriff left the Tennessee game with a head injury and we saw Rutgers transfer Gavin Wimsatt keep UK in the game late with a beautiful touchdown pass to Ja’Mori Maclin. Wimsatt has had packages all year, so if he’s the starter against Murray State, it wouldn’t be a shocker. But Mark Stoops suggested during the bye week that freshman Cutter Boley could get some run. It would seem like a good time to do that just to get him some live action. Of course, turning to Boley in a favorable matchup could also lead to an unrealistic expectation of his abilities.
Whatever UK does at the quarterback position, this should still be an ideal spot to get a win at Kroger Field for the first time since Sept. 21.
Mercer vs. No. 9 Alabama — It wouldn’t be surprising to see a good amount of downfield shots early
As in, I don’t expect to see Milroe getting a whole lot of designed runs even though that was a cheat code against LSU. Ideally, Kalen DeBoer would try and get the passing game going when it really hasn’t been at an elite level since the Georgia game. That’s not to say it’s been bad, but Milroe would love to get his favorite target going again. He and Ryan Williams have 8 passes of 30 yards this season, but 7 of them happened in September.
If the Tide are going to get to 10-2 and make a run in the Playoff, that downfield connection needs to be reestablished. Doing that against an FCS team — albeit a 9-1 FCS team — would make a ton of sense after the run-heavy LSU win.
No. 21 LSU vs. Florida — My guess is that DJ Lagway plays, but how does he play?
It felt like Lagway’s week of prep ahead of Texas was executed with LSU in mind. Florida won’t beat LSU without Lagway. But the dilemma is obvious if Lagway plays. In the last 5.5 quarters that LSU played, Blake Baker’s defense allowed 10 rushing touchdowns, 7 of which were from quarterbacks. Quarterbacks ran for 247 yards on 21 carries in that stretch. Mind you, there was a bye week between those dreadful performances by the LSU defense. In other words, stopping the quarterback run game is an issue. A major issue.
The issue for Florida isn’t Billy Napier fighting for his job. He doesn’t have to worry about that after the vote of confidence he got before the Texas game. The issue is that Lagway, coming off the hamstring injury, would be a lot more susceptible to injury if the quarterback run game is a prevalent part of the offense. The risk is that Florida’s 2025 outlook is directly tied to Lagway becoming an elite quarterback. Napier can’t afford to have him knocked out for the spring when he needs to be getting on the same page with Florida’s pass-catchers.
There’s a fine line for Napier to walk as he tries to find the answers to lead Florida past LSU for the first time since 2018.
No. 24 Mizzou vs. No. 23 South Carolina — Does Eli Drinkwitz still own South Carolina?
South Carolina hasn’t beaten Mizzou since 2018 when Drew Lock led the Tigers in a wet and wild game in Columbia. Beamer is 0-3 against Mizzou, and he’s been outscored 57-22 in the last 2 contests. Drinkwitz has had his number and he’s never lost to South Carolina in their 4 meetings since he arrived in 2020. Of course, those were very different South Carolina teams than the one that faced Mizzou during Beamer’s time in Columbia. It’s got a loaded defensive line and an emerging 1-2 punch with LaNorris Sellers and a healthy Rocket Sanders.
Mizzou, whether it returns Brady Cook or not, is a 2-touchdown underdog on the road for a reason. The Gamecocks have been the better team. If they can’t flex their muscles and finally stop the bleeding against Mizzou, it would be an extremely frustrating development for Beamer with the best team he’s had.
New Mexico State vs. No. 15 Texas A&M — A&M cannot afford another RB injury
First, it was promising sophomore Reuben Owens suffering a season-ending injury in fall camp. Most recently, it was potential All-SEC running back Le’Veon Moss suffering a season-ending injury in the South Carolina loss. Now, it’ll be the Amari Daniels-EJ Smith show the rest of the way. The good news for A&M is that it still has, along with Marcel Reed, a 3-headed rushing attack. The bad news for A&M is that it doesn’t have any margin for error left, both in the backfield and in the Playoff picture.
A brutal development would be watching any more injuries to the A&M backfield, especially in what should be a lopsided matchup on Saturday.
No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 11 Georgia — If there was ever a time for Tennessee to get Georgia, this is it
Duh. Georgia has 2 regular-season losses for the second time in the last 8 years. The most recent occurrence was in 2020, when Tennessee was busy organizing a coup to get Jeremy Pruitt fired. Well, check that. That came after Pruitt got the Vols off to a promising 2-0 start … only to watch it go up in smoke after halftime in Athens. Last year in Knoxville, the Vols got off to a promising start vs. Georgia with a 75-yard touchdown run by Jaylen Wright on the first play from scrimmage … only to get outscored 38-3 the rest of the way.
But against this Georgia team, the question is whether that loaded Tennessee defense, which hasn’t allowed 20 points all year, can deliver the knockout blow and beat the Dawgs for the first time since 2016, AKA “The Dobbsnail Boot” game. Since the start of 2017, Kirby Smart is 44-1 at Sanford Stadium. Then again, UGA just ended its 52-game winning streak against non-Alabama teams because it was overwhelmed by Ole Miss’ defensive pressure in Oxford.
Can Tennessee dial up similar looks and hand UGA a third loss? It’s certainly possible after UGA crumbled with its back against the wall at Ole Miss.
Milroe had 2 passes of 30 or longer versus WKU in August, so how does he only have eight on the year to him if 7 were in September?
I’m guessing we see a bit a Terry Bussey out of the backfield this weekend.
I certainly hope so. Bussey is the most explosive player on the offense and he needs to get the ball more.
No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 11 Georgia…..
What’s the O/U on turnovers by UGA?
2.5 under
Another great weekend of games coming up, hard to believe the regular season is almost over! A very Happy Veterans Day to all my brothers and sisters who have served, we all have different teams we support but we fought together for the greatest team out there.
Semper Fi.
Thank you to all the brave men and women who fought (and continue to fight) for us. Despite our petty cfb differences, you ARE the reason this is the greatest country in the world!
Tennessee is winning this game. And I think convincingly.
Vols 31
Dawgs 17
I love your optimism. I wish I had it.
So Tennessee scores 30+ for the first time in 6 games against MS St at home, and you think they will do it again in Athens?
Who knows. Maybe it will happen. But I haven’t seen the Vols play all that great on the road under Heupel. But, there is a first time for everything.
Like a first grader seeing the Vols beat Georgia for the first time in his/her life.
Happy Veterans Day. It will be a fun game in Athens as both teams have been erratic this year. I don’t expect UT to win, but having said that I would not be surprised if they did. Turnovers will be the key I think.
Ha, if turnovers are the key Georgia is doomed. They are making up for the low turnovers the last few years all at once here.
A real turning point for Georgia. I said several weeks ago they looked complacent and that will kill a run of great seasons. Reminds me of Clemson a few years ago.
Question is, will Kirby shun his loyalty and make the changes needed at the coordinator positions? Saban always did which is why they have been so dominant.
Definitely a battle for supremacy in the old East. I still think UGA and the home crowd is too much but it will be good.
You can’t deny the power of the home field advantage!
So because LSU struggles with QB runs, that is the only way to score points? Kinda a dumb take. Lagway isn’t Milroe and never will be. But he’s got an arm. I’ll take my chances in the air.
I agree. Florida has good RBs, let them do most of the running and have Lagway focus on passing. Personally, I’d rather Lagway take it easy and fully heal than put him out there to soon and have him get hurt worse.
I’d love to see Baugh in with a wildcat package to take the heat off of DJ and his hammie.
I’m repeating my comments from another article, but I would feel really good if this game was in Knoxville. In Athens, with a peeved UGA defense, yikes!
This reminds me of last week – the home team is in can’t lose mode and the visitor can still lose and be ok.
At any rate, it’s good to play a ranked team at home. This is Georgia’s 5th currently ranked team this year,but the first one in Athens. 4 of the teams, Alabama, Texas, Ole Miss and TN are in the top 10. Brutal schedule this year.
UT can’t lose this game and still be okay for the playoff. Potentially 10-2 with a loss this week, though, is still a great year.
I disagree. I think they are in at 10-2 with a win against Bama. Missing out on the SEC Championship game is a good thing. Just ask Georgia.
I feel 10-2 with a CLOSE loss to UGA gets us in… If we get run out of Athens, forget it.
I think Arkansas might punch Texas in the mouth. Not calling the upset, but I’m feeling an unexpectedly close fight in that one.
Generally, when Ark plays a tough opponent after a bye week, they don’t do well. This season, we have no idea which team (good Ark or bad Ark) is going to show up. I’m predicting Tex blows out Ark, but if Ark comes to play and Tex comes in overlooking the Hogs, who knows.