
O'Gara: What Billy Napier's 2025 return means for him, Florida and college football as a whole
In Week 3, when Texas A&M finally stopped running all over Florida’s defense and the clock hit “0,” I assumed that time had also expired on the Billy Napier era in Gainesville. At that point, it appeared it was only a matter of time before Florida would agree to pay him a $26 million buyout, and it would begin the search for its 5th coach of the post-Urban Meyer era.
Suffering 2 blowout home losses in September usually isn’t the preamble for a coach on the hot seat who saves his job. Or if it somehow is the preamble, it’s on the heels of some monumental wins.
Nope. Consider that all the more reason to treat the situation in Gainesville as a unique one that has some layers to it.
On Thursday, Florida announced that Napier will be back in 2025.
A message from Scott Stricklin pic.twitter.com/NpLD6ktrHj
— Florida Gators (@FloridaGators) November 7, 2024
That exhale you heard was from Ole Miss fans who didn’t want to publicly entertain the thought of Lane Kiffin leaving for Gainesville, but privately felt great relief in Thursday’s news.
The timing of that announcement was certainly interesting. A 4-4 Florida squad was days removed from a closer-than-expected game against Georgia, wherein the Gators lost after they were down to their third-string QB, AKA a preferred walk-on from Yale. It was 2 days ahead of a game at No. 5 Texas, where the expectation is that their third-string QB, AKA a preferred walk-on from Yale, could be facing a daunting matchup with an injury-riddled roster.
Why now? And why did Florida need to announce that a coach under contract through 2027 was returning for the 2025 season?
The short of that is we’re in the home stretch of the recruiting cycle and the Gators could use all the help they could get with the nation’s No. 51 class. Fear of Napier’s potential exit certainly played a part in that ranking. Not having clarity on that decision would’ve only made things worse. There’s no denying that Napier will need a portal-heavy approach this offseason, which could begin 3 weeks from Saturday if Florida misses a bowl berth.
By announcing Napier’s return, he’ll avoid the questions on the recruiting trail about whether he’s coaching for his job down the stretch. Shoot, he’ll avoid the questions in his own locker room, which could be significant as the post-regular season transfer portal window opens.
You could argue that Napier should be coaching for his job down the stretch and that he shouldn’t be given a pass just because he could be without DJ Lagway. After all, Napier is 15-18 at Florida with a recruiting class that’s sitting outside of the top 50. Unless Napier beats a ranked team for the first time in 14 months — he’ll have 3 chances to do so with No. 5 Texas, No. 15 LSU and No. 16 Ole Miss — Florida will miss the postseason in consecutive seasons for the first time since 1985-86.
Two things can be true at the same time. One is that Florida isn’t a program that celebrates moral victories. Simply “hanging tough” is never going to define a coach’s tenure in Gainesville. The other is that if Florida had continued its disastrous September into October, Florida would have agreed to pay the $26 million buyout to send Napier packing.
Those sound like contradicting statements. I get that.
If Florida had agreed to extend Napier, it would’ve been a sign that it was celebrating moral victories. Napier isn’t getting that. He’ll be in the maddeningly rare group of Power Conference coaches who’ll enter next season with 3 seasons left on his contract (the maddening part is that coaches claim they can’t recruit unless they have at least 4 years remaining on their deals).
Florida is kicking the can to 2025 — much like Napier did when he decided not to go for the 2-point conversion at the end of regulation at Tennessee — and you’d better believe that Lagway has a ton to do with that.
In a limited sample size, the Gatorade National Player of the Year looked the part as a true freshman. In this era of loosened transfer restrictions, it’s unrealistic to assume that Florida could fire Napier and keep Lagway. Perhaps it could’ve happened, but given how heavily Lagway bought into Napier during his high-profile recruitment process when he left the state of Texas, that didn’t seem likely. Consider Lagway the Jimmy Chitwood to Napier’s Norman Dale. Even if Lagway never had to get in front of Florida’s administration and say his presence was dependent on his coach staying, one could imply that.
(That’s a “Hoosiers” reference, people. I hope an explanation was only necessary for the extreme minority of readers of this column.)
Florida is banking on the second-year version of Lagway not only keeping core skill players in Gainesville, but also allowing him to be an asset in recruiting transfer portal targets. Again, one would assume that’ll be a major part of Florida’s 2025 identity when Napier will again be fighting to save his job. What that bar to meet looks like remains to be seen. Context will be needed if Florida’s schedule is again among the most difficult in the sport, though one would think failing to even compete for a Playoff spot will be seen as a disappointment if that’s the result.
Thursday’s announcement was met with another potential realization — does Napier’s return and Florida’s avoidance of his $26 million signal the start of a new era? As in, a new era in which athletic departments avoid paying hefty buyouts with the $20 million revenue sharing for athletes beginning next year?
Over time, that could certainly be the case. In this specific instance, Florida’s funds weren’t lacking. All indications were that not only were the Gators willing to pay what would’ve been the second-richest buyout ever for a head coach — $26 million to Napier would’ve been a distant second place to Jimbo Fisher’s $76 million buyout at Texas A&M — but that they were willing to pursue an established Power Conference coach to succeed him.
What changed? The defense completely turned around in October. Lagway looked the part. Most important, Florida stopped being a punching bag.
The Gators will take a few jabs for keeping Napier (by its own fan base and others), but they also would’ve taken jabs for having their 4th consecutive coach fail to get a Year 5. Of course, they aren’t out of the woods with avoiding that dubious cycle just yet. Napier will have to deliver in Year 4 to reach Year 5, and everyone will know it. A coach who needs a public vote of confidence deserves to lead any sort of hot-seat list until further notice.
By now, though, Napier should be used to that. All that matters to him is that there’s still some time on the clock.
Them Dawgs gonna be runnin’ scared now!
↑ This is a reference to the fact that Kirby Smart publicly stated that Billy will be the next Nick Saban.
Riiight. We all know how much Kirby fears Napier and his Gators.
I don’t think you fully understand what just happened, Emilio. With the postmortem autopsy having been fully completed, organs already sent to the pathology lab and the brain dissected/encased in various jars, the patient was still breathing!
It may take some time to reassemble, spare parts may be required from Chinese vendors, but thankfully we have Dr Stricklin for that.
Yo Kerwin, you do know that when Kirby was making that Billy to Nick comparison…he was talking about as a broadcast personality…Billy will be the next Nick Saban on ESPN game day…
Riiight! It’s gonna be that scintillating Napier personality, that pithy, on the mark analysis that’s gonna keep folks riveted to their TV sets when Billy speaks. He’ll be the EF Hutton of College Gameday!
Against Georgia, Billy’s team played like they loved their coach…
that was impressive.
The following post was before the Georgia…
TrueGrit 6 DAYS AGO
I believe Napier could actually save his job; three losses against three teams in the top ten with a combined record of 21-2… everyone knew the schedule was brutal and he’s still treading water.
This post was after the Georgia game…
TrueGrit 5 DAYS AGO
…
After today’s hard fought loss, four losses against four top ten teams with a combined record of 31-3…
Billy is treading water!!!
This coming from a true Gator Hater
Boom was entertaining; thanks for contributing to his fortune so that he is content to hang around Athens and help with the defense
McElwain was weird, like the uncle that would go to jail taking up for you among the neighborhood kids when you were in elementary school, think fusion of Uncle Fester, Uncle Buck and Uncle Rico..
mullet was the nerd/jerk/geek/oddball/dork/booger-eater/fart-sniffer that you enjoyed giving atomic wedgies to in middle school, wedgies so complete and thorough that he had no underwear and needed reconstructive surgery
after that epic run of HC’s, Stricklin hired Napier and gave him a golden chute contract
dude we feel sorry for ya’ll, it’s way beyond enjoying beating UF senseless in Jacksonville 90% of the time, it’s descended to the level of midget tossing
That’s how we felt in the 90s when Goof was coaching.
Tough situation to be in, but he is well compensated for the trials and tribulations of the job. Any coach is only a few bad games away from being gone in this day and age. UF is still playing hard for him, and injuries, especially for the QBs. It will be interesting to see how UF responds and what impact it has on recruiting.
Nothing in Stricklin’s letter says Billy will be the head coach in 2025, it only says he will continue as head coach. There is nothing saying how long he will continue. This whole letter is a farce as he will simply continue as coach until they find a better one and hopefully a better AD as well.
After a new university president is hired… in 2025.
So dumb. The only exhale from OleMiss fans you heard was relief that we don’t have to hear your intentional manufacturing of baseless rumors anymore this season. Though I’m sure you will do it again on a different topic next week.
It didn’t even wait until a different topic today. Read the post directly below yours.
BTW, when Florida fires Napier and if Florida really wants Kiffin, Kiffin will be a gone Rebel.
Book it.
“BTW, when Florida fires Napier and if Florida really wants Kiffin, Kiffin will be a gone Rebel.”
Put real money on that, gaytor.
Using the term “gaytor” exposes you as a retarded child trying to argue with adults
Napier has next year. SEC schedule is the same-the sites flip. Has Miami on the road. Can FSU be as bad as they were this year? Doubtful. USF replaces USF and a different FCS sacrificial lamb at home. In other words barring a miracle he’s gone after next year. Presumably Kiffin will still be available then.
“Presumably Kiffin will still be available then.”
Yeah, Kiffin is just waiting around waiting for a call from the swamp.
Kiffin could win a Natty at UF, that’s not going to happen at Ole Miss.
Maybe Kiffin gets all the stars lined up at Ole Miss, catches some lucky breaks and has a magical season (think BYU, Iowa, UCF and their faux natty etc..) If Kiffin could pull that off at Ole Miss then he could build a program that would win multiple NC’s at UF.
“Kiffin could win a Natty at UF”
There is absolutely nothing to back that up with. If Kiffin is so great why didn’t AL hire him.
“If Kiffin could pull that off at Ole Miss then he could build a program that would win multiple NC’s at UF.”
AL had a coaching vacancy and passed on Kiffin. AL has a MUCH more talent than UF.
Larry Coker, Bob Stoops, Jim Tressel, Pete Carroll, Urban Meyer, Mack Brown, Jimbo Fisher, Gene Chiznik, Les Miles, Dabo Swaney, Jim Harbaugh, Ed Orgeron, Kirby Smart – all those guys have won NC’s in the new millennium and Alabama didn’t hire them as the HC. Alabama could have made Kirby the HC-In-Waiting, why didn’t they do that?
Just because Bama didn’t hire Kiffin doesn’t mean Kiffin is incapable of winning a NC. Kiffin has matured a lot over the last several years but his career track isn’t exactly a “cultural fit” for Bama. I would much rather have Lane Kiffin as a HC than Kalen DeBoer, when it’s all said and done I bet Kiffin will have the better head coaching record than Deboer.
“AL has a MUCH more talent than UF.”
That wasn’t the case when Spurrier and Meyer were at UF.
UF has at least the recruiting potential that Bama has, probably more. The State of Florida cranks out many times the blue-chippers than does Alabama. University prestige, UF is the higher rated school. With a coach in place at UF that can develop players and win championships (Spurrier and Meyer) how many kids across the Nation would rather matriculate in the State of Alabama than the State of Florida?
Ehhh, but then you have that living in Gainesville vs living in Tuscaloosa quandary…who really wants to live in Gainesville? Nobody, it’s a great place to be “from”
“Alabama could have made Kirby the HC-In-Waiting, why didn’t they do that?”
Uh…Kirby left AL years before Saban retired, she/her. Why would Kirby stick around waiting for Saban to retire?
“That wasn’t the case when Spurrier and Meyer were at UF.”
Spurrier hasn’t been in FL in decades. Same with Meyer. Also, Kiffin isn’t Spurrier or Meyer.
Try harder.
“The State of Florida cranks out many times the blue-chippers than does Alabama. ”
AL has won more championships than every university in the state of FL combined.
““The State of Florida cranks out many times the blue-chippers than does Alabama. ”
AL has won more championships than every university in the state of FL combined.”
The poster is talking about high school talent, not cfb. Florida is one of, if not the, most talent rich environment in the country.
“The poster is talking about high school talent, not cfb. Florida is one of, if not the, most talent rich environment in the country.”
No kidding? Really?
AL can get talent from anywhere in the country and still win more championships than any school in FL.
Auburn grads are very intelligent, they know when to abandon their sinking ship and jump on a winning program’s bandwagon…roolllllll tide roll.
What is the purpose of this release, to prove that Kamala isn’t the only one who can whip up a word salad?
Stricklin should have been fired before he hired Napier.
Pour one out for the sad retards that voted for Willie Brown’s side piece.
Gator fan here. TO ALL BOOSTERS _ who the hell does Stricklin think he is? Gator nation wants silly billy gone – you control the money – fire silly billy and his brother stricklin!!!!!!
Everyone has this wrong!!!..Billy Donovan will be coaching football next year! The future is bright
That…and Kamala will be available for cheerleader coach. The future looks bright. Billy D may want to work out a combo basketball-football contract…
The note from the AD who is also on the hot seat( see UF bball coach accused) does not have any time reference and it is vague for a good reason. There’s nothing in the note that says 2025 season. They can keep him for one game-for the rest of the season-through the early signing period. It just does not say.