Paul Finebaum assesses a 3-loss Georgia's chance to make the CFP
Paul Finebaum was asked Friday on SportsCenter if Georgia can make the College Football Playoff as a 3-loss team.
The Bulldogs (7-2) have another top-25 game on the docket this week with Tennessee coming to town. The prospect of Georgia losing 3 regular-season games — something it hasn’t done for nearly a decade — has many wondering if a 3-loss Georgia team would be shut out from the Playoff.
ESPN’s proprietary CFP predictor gives Georgia a 94% chance to make the CFP if it wins the game. With remaining games against UMass and Georgia Tech, the Dawgs would be close to a lock. With a loss, though, the model gives Georgia only a 45% chance to get in.
And even that seems high. If Georgia beats Tennessee and Texas A&M beats Texas, the Bulldogs will head to Atlanta for the conference title game. If Georgia loses to Tennessee, it will be eliminated from the picture, leaving nothing left on the schedule for Georgia to impress the committee with.
Finebaum argued on Friday that Georgia would be dead in the water with a loss.
“I hate to argue with the Playoff Predictor, but I don’t think they have much of a chance at all because that would mean 3 losses on the season,” Finebaum said. “Most of us don’t think a 3-loss team can get in unless that loss came perhaps in the SEC Championship Game.
“The Etienne injury is a big one. He’s been banged up for a couple weeks and they really need a running game with Carson Beck’s sack problems and interception problems and fumble problems.”
Finebaum added that the status of Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava is the biggest storyline. Without the quarterback, Finebaum said Tennessee won’t win the game. With him, Finebaum said, the Vols have “an adequate offense with an elite defense.”
Iamaleava was officially listed as questionable on the midweek availability report, but the belief is that Iamaleava will be able to play on Saturday.
Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC. The Dawgs are a 9.5-point favorite at ESPN Bet.
“If Georgia beats Tennessee and Texas A&M beats Texas, the Bulldogs will head to Atlanta”
The only thing that is clear as mud is that if aTm beats UTA and doesn’t stumble anywhere else, they are in. I can see Texas eliminated because of head to head loss to UGa and aTm but what if Bama is a 2 loss team as well, not to mention a 2 loss Ole Ms also with the head to head tiebreaker vs UGa, so exactly how is UGa in the SECCG if they beat UTV? Even a 2 loss UTV with head to head over Bama still has to be factored in the tiebreaker scenario as well. And then there’s LSU…Oh the humanity, make it stop!
Raised my eyebrows as well.
Well maybe the article’s crafter, Derek Peterson, can take a break from covering Oklahoma, Nebraska and the BIG12 in between writing inaccurate SEC articles, and explain it for us. He is ruining our illusion of getting that most highly coveted #5 seed, missing out on having to get beat up in an SECCG and opening at home against Boise or ND.
You deserve the #5/#6 SEC seed. That is your historical and rightful place.
A a 3-loss assessment is a waste of time. Everyone knows Georgia is going to dog walk Tennessee.